I am an Assistant Professor in the Department of Earth Sciences at the University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa and also hold an appointment in the International Pacific Research Center. My work combines state-of-the-art statistical techniques and climate models with observed and paleoclimatic data to better understand climate variability and change across timescales. If you are interested in working in my lab as an undergraduate researcher, graduate student or postdoctoral researcher please reach out to discuss opportunities. I was previously at Columbia University for my doctorate and a postdoctoral scientist at the University of Colorado, Boulder and in the Advanced Study Program at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, and an Assistant Scientist in the Department of Geology and Geophysics at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution.
Wimberly, F., L. Ultee, L. Schuster, M. Huss, D.R. Rounce, F. Mansion, S. Coats, J. Mackay and E. Holmgren, Climate model uncertainty outweighs glacier model uncertainty in 21st-century drought buffering projections, The Cryosphere, accepted.
Falster, G., S. Coats and N. Abram, How Unusual Was Australia's 2017-2019 Tinderbox Drought?, Weather and Climate Extremes, 2024.
Devanand, A., G.M. Falster, Z.E. Gillett, S. Hobeichi, C.M. Holgate, C. Jin, M. Mu, T. Parker, S.W. Rifai, K.S. Rome, M. Stojanovic, E. Vogel, N. Abram, G. Abramowitz, S. Coats, et al., Australia’s Tinderbox Drought: an extreme natural event likely worsened by human-caused climate change, Science Advances, 2024.
Ellison, L. and S. Coats, A framework for assessing the drivers and impacts of drought events: the contemporary drought in the western and central United States, Journal of Climate, 2024.
Steinberg, J.M., C.G. Piecuch, B.D. Hamlington, P.R. Thompson, and S. Coats, Influence of Deep‐Ocean Warming on Coastal Sea‐Level Decadal Trends in the Gulf of Mexico, Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 2024.
Tamalavage, A.E. , P.J. van Hengstum, S.J. Feakins, S.N. Little, S. Coats, T.S. Winkler, R.M. Sullivan, P. Louchouarn, J.P. Donnelly and N.A. Albury, Middle to late Holocene paleolimnology of a sinkhole lake in the northern Bahamas, and its linkage to regional climate variability, Journal of Paleolimnology, 2023.
Bhattacharya, T., R. Fang, C.R. Maupin, S. Coats, P.R. Brennan and E. Carter, California margin temperatures modulate regional circulation and extreme summer precipitation in the desert Southwest, Environmental Research Letters, 2023.
Falster, G., B. Konecky, S. Coats and S. Stevenson, Forced changes in the Pacific Walker circulation over the past millennium, Nature, 2023.
Janiszewski, H.A., Z. Eilon, J. Russell, B. Brunsvik, J. Gaherty, S. Mosher, W. Hawley and S. Coats, Broadband Ocean Bottom Seismometer Noise Properties, Geophysical Journal International, 2022.
Evans, C.P., T. Ault, S. Coats, C.M. Carrillo, X. Li, D.A. Herrera, B.N. Benton, Intrinsic century-scale variability in tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures and their influence on southwestern US hydroclimate, Geophysical Research Letters, 2022.
Carrillo, C.M., S. Coats, M. Newman, D.A. X. Li, R. Moore, S. Shin, S. Stevenson, F. Lehner and T. Ault, Megadrought: A series of unfortunate La Niña events, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2022.
Cook, B.I., J.E. Smerdon, E.R. Cook, A.P. Williams, K.J. Anchukaitis, J.S. Mankin, K. Allen, L. Andreu-Hayles, T.R. Ault, S. Belmecheri, S. Coats, et al., Megadroughts in the Common Era and the Anthropocene, Nature Review Earth Environment, 2022.
Scheff, J., S. Coats and M. Lagué, Why do the global warming responses of land-surface models and climatic dryness metrics disagree, Earth's Future, 2022.
Li, S., T. Wahl, A. Barroso, S. Coats, S. Dangendorf, C.G. Piecuch, Q. Sun, P.R. Thompson and L. Liu, Contributions of different sea-level processes to high-tide flooding along the U.S. coastline, Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 2022.
Ultee, L., S. Coats and J. Mackay, Glacial runoff buffers droughts through the 21st century, Earth System Dynamics Discussions, 2022.
Mikkelsen, A.B., T.R. Anderson, S. Coats and C.H. Fletcher, Complex drivers of reef-fronted beach change, Marine Geology, 2022.
Stevenson, S., S. Coats, D. Touma, J. Cole, F. Lehner, J. Fasullo and B. Otto-Bliesner, 21st Century Hydroclimate: A Continually Changing Baseline, with Stronger Extremes, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2022.
Piecuch, C.G., S. Coats, S. Dangendorf, F.W. Landerer, J.T. Reager, P.R. Thompson and T. Wahl, High-tide floods and storm surges during atmospheric rivers on the US west coast, Geophysical Research Letters, 2022.
Gulev S.K., P.W. Thorne, J. Ahn, F.J. Dentener, C.M. Domingues, S. Gerland, D. Gong, D.S. Kaufman, H.C. Nnamchi, J. Quaas, J.A. Rivera, S. Satheyendranath, S.L. Smith, B. Trewin, K. von Schuckmann and R.S. Vose, Chapter 2: Changing state of the climate system. In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, 2021.
Lehner F. and S. Coats, Does regional hydroclimate change scale linearly with global warming, Geophysical Research Letters, 2021.
Osman, M.B., S. Coats, S.B. Das, J.R. McConnell and N. Chellman, A 13 century context for north Atlantic jet stream projections, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2021.
Falster, G.M., B. Konecky, M. Madhavan, S. Stevenson and S. Coats, Imprint of the Pacific Walker Circulation in global precipitation δ18O, Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, 2021.
Sullivan, R.M., P.J. van Hengstum, S. Coats, J.P. Donnelly, A.E. Tamalavage, T.S. Winkler and N.A. Albury, Hydroclimate dipole drives multi‐centennial variability in the western tropical north Atlantic margin during the middle and late Holocene, Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, 2021.
Scheff, J., J.S. Mankin, S. Coats and Haibo Liu, CO2-plant effects do not account for the gap between dryness indices and projected dryness impacts in CMIP6 or CMIP5, Environmental Research Letters, 2021.
Wallace, E.J., S. Coats, K. Emanuel and J.P. Donnelly, Centennial‐scale shifts in storm frequency captured in paleohurricane records from the Bahamas arise predominantly from random variability, Geophysical Research Letters, 2021.
Touma, D., S. Stevenson, F. Lehner and S. Coats, Human-driven greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions cause distinct regional impacts on extreme fire weather, Nature Communications, 2021.
Stevenson, S., A.T. Wittenberg, J.T. Fasullo, S. Coats and B. Otto-Bliesner, Understanding Diverse Model Projections of Future Extreme El Niño, Journal of Climate, 2021.
Tamalavage, A.E., P.J. van Hengstum, P. Louchouam, P.L. Fall, J.P. Donnelly, N.A. Albury, S. Coats and S.J. Feakins, Plant wax evidence for precipitation and vegetation change from a coastal sinkhole lake in the Bahamas spanning the last 3000 years, Organic Geochemistry, 2020.
Coats, S., J.E. Smerdon, S. Stevenson, J.T. Fasullo, B. Otto-Bliesner and T.R. Ault, The Influence of Greenhouse Gas Forcing and Volcanism on 21st Century Drought Projections, Journal of Climate, 2021.
Mankin, J.S., F. Lehner, S. Coats and K.A. MicKinnon, The value of initial condition large ensembles to robust adaptation decision-making, Earth's Future, 2020.
Bhattacharya, T. and S. Coats, Atlantic‐Pacific gradients drive last millennium hydroclimate variability in Mesoamerica, Geophysical Research Letters, 2020.
Fan, W., J.J. McGuire, C.D. de Groot-Hedlin, M.A. Hedlin, S. Coats and J.W. Fielder, Stormquakes, Geophysical Research Letters, 2019.
Parsons, L.A. and S. Coats, Ocean-Atmosphere trajectories of extended drought in southwestern North America, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2019.
Cook, B.I., A.P. Williams, J.E. Smerdon, J.G. Palmer, E.R. Cook, D.W. Stahle and S. Coats, Cold tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures during the late sixteenth century North American megadrought, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2019.
Samanta, D., K.B. Karnauskas, N. Goodkin, S. Coats, J.E. Smerdon and L. Zhang Coupled model biases breed spurious low‐frequency variability in the tropical pacific ocean, Geophysical Research Letters, 2018.
Herrera-Hernandez, D.A., T.R. Ault, J.T. Fasullo, S. Coats, C.M. Carrillo, B.I. Cook and A.P. Williams, Exacerbation of the 2013-2016 Pan-Caribbean drought by anthropogenic warming, Geophysical Research Letters, 2018.
Cook, B.I., A.P. Williams, J.E. Smerdon, J.G. Palmer, E.R. Cook, D.W. Stahle and S. Coats, Cold tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures during the late sixteenth-century North American megadrought, Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, 2018.
Parsons, L., S. Coats and J.T. Overpeck, The continuum of drought in Southwestern North America, Journal of Climate, 2018
Coats, S. and K.B. Karnauskas, A role for the Equatorial Undercurrent in the ocean dynamical thermostat, Journal of Climate, 2018
Stevenson, S., J.T. Overpeck, J. Fasullo, S. Coats, L. Parsons, B. Otto-Bliesner, T. Ault, G. Loope and J. Cole, Climate Variability, Volcanic Forcing, and Last Millennium Hydroclimate Extremes, Journal of Climate, 2018.
Ault, T.R., S. St. George, J.E. Smerdon, S. Coats, J.S. Mankin, C.M. Carrillo, B.I. Cook and S. Stevenson, A robust null hypothesis for the potential causes of megadrought in western North America, Journal of Climate, 2018.
Coats, S. and K.B. Karnauskas, Are Simulated and Observed Twentieth Century Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Trends Significant Relative to Internal Variability?, Geophysical Research Letters, 2017.
Baek, S.H., J.E. Smerdon, S. Coats, A.P. Williams, B.I. Cook, E.R. Cook and R. Seager, Precipitation, temperature, and teleconnection signals across the combined North American, Monsoon Asia, and Old World Drought Atlases, Journal of Climate, 2017.
Lehner, F., S. Coats, T.F. Stocker, A.G. Pendergrass, B.M Sanderson, C.C. Raible and J.E. Smerdon, Projected drought risk in 1.5 C and 2 C warmer climates, Geophysical Research Letters, 2017.
Smerdon, J.E., J. Luterbacher, S.J. Phipps, K.J. Anchukaitis, T. Ault, S. Coats, et al., Comparing proxy and model estimates of hydroclimate variability and change over the Common Era, Climate of the Past, 2017.
Coats, S., J.E. Smerdon, B.I. Cook, R. Seager, E.R. Cook and K.J. Anchukaitis, Internal ocean-atmosphere variability drives megadroughts in Western North America, Geophysical Research Letters, 2016.
Coats, S. and J.S. Mankin, The challenge of accurately quantifying future megadrought risk in the American Southwest, Geophysical Research Letters, 2016.
Coats, S., J.E. Smerdon, K.B. Karnauskas and R. Seager, The improbable but unexceptional occurrence of megadrought clustering in the American West during the Medieval Climate Anomaly, Environmental Research Letters, 2016.
Cook, B.I., E.R. Cook, J.E. Smerdon, R. Seager, A.P. Williams, S. Coats, D.W. Stahle and J. Villanueva, North American Megadroughts in the Common Era: Reconstructions and Simulations, WIREs Climate Change, 2016.
Coats, S., J.E. Smerdon, R. Seager, D. Griffin and B.I. Cook, Winter-to-Summer Precipitation Phasing in Southwestern North America: A Multi-Century Perspective from Paleoclimate Model-Data Comparisons, Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, 2015.
J.E. Smerdon, S. Coats and T.R. Ault, Model-Dependent Spatial Skill in Pseudoproxy Experiments Testing Climate Field Reconstruction Methods for the Common Era, Climate Dynamics, 2015.
Coats, S., B.I. Cook, J.E. Smerdon and R. Seager, North American Pan-Continental Droughts in Model Simulations of the Last Millennium, Journal of Climate, 2015.
Coats, S., J.E. Smerdon, B.I. Cook and R. Seager, Are Simulated Megadroughts in the North American Southwest Forced?, Journal of Climate, 2015.
Cook, B.I., J.E. Smerdon, R. Seager and S. Coats, Global Warming and 21st Century Drought, Climate Dynamics, 2014.
Coats, S., J.E. Smerdon, B.I. Cook and R. Seager, Stationarity of the tropical pacific teleconnection to North America in CMIP5/PMIP3 model simulations, Geofphysical Research Letters, 2013.
Coats, S., J.E. Smerdon, R. Seager, B.I. Cook and J.F. González-Rouco, Megadroughts in Southwestern North America in Millennium-Length ECHO-G Simulations and their Comparison to Proxy Drought Reconstructions, Journal of Climate, 2013.
University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa
Department of Earth Sciences
1680 East-West Road, Honolulu, HI 96822
Phone: 808-956-7889; Office: POST 713A